标题：Modern Freight Development and Trend Analysis of Shandong Province
作者：Fan, Lu-Jie ;Zhang, Ru-Hua ;Zhu, Hong
作者机构：[Fan, Lu-Jie ;Zhang, Ru-Hua ;Zhu, Hong ] Transportation Planning and Design Research Center, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China
会议名称：15th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals: Efficient, Safe, and Green Multimodal Transportation, CICTP 2015
会议日期：24 July 2015 through 27 July 2015
来源：CICTP 2015 - Efficient, Safe, and Green Multimodal Transportation - Proceedings of the 15th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals
关键词：Freight forecast; Freight structure; Integrated transport system; Sustainable competitiveness
摘要：Four selected freight structural characteristic parameters-Transportation scale, transportation mode share, transportation costs, energy consumption-reflected the performance of an integrated transportation system and are used to evaluate the sustainable competitiveness of the integrated transport system in Shandong Province. Typical cases are selected to do comparative studies both at home and abroad. The results showed that the situation of sustainable competitiveness of the integrated transport system in Shandong Province was weak, despite the fact that it has large-scale. After analyzing the factors influencing freight volumes and transportation mode shares, the growth rate method, the elastic coefficient method, and trend extrapolation are used to predict the overall Shandong freight tonnage and ton-kilometers and the Shandong transportation mode shares. The conclusion points out that, if Shandong fully taps the potential of railways, waterways and pipeline transportation, the future of sustainable competitiveness of the transportation system would be changed fundamentally. © ASCE.