标题：A system dynamics model for emissions projection of hinterland transportation
作者：Liu, Pei; Liu, Chao; Du, Jianbang; Mu, Dong
作者机构：[Liu, Pei] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Bldg Sci & Technol, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China.; [Liu, Pei; Liu, Chao] Shandong Univ, Dept Management Sci & Engn 更多
通讯作者：Mu, Dong;Mu, D
通讯作者地址：[Mu, D]Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Dept Management Sci & Engn, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China.
来源：JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
关键词：Hinterland transportation; Freight transportation; Transport emission;; System dynamics; Policy instrument
摘要：The rapid development of China's economy has led to a rapid increase in port throughput and made the issue of hinterland transport emissions more prominent. In this paper, a system dynamics model was established to project the long-term emissions of hinterland transportation. The model functions in a modular manner, consisting of core subsystems developed based on the classic four-step model of transportation, and several additional subsystems that are used to address the characteristics of the hinterland transport processes. The developed model was applied to a specific case in China to assess the long-term effects of alternative environmental policies on hinterland transport emissions. Through a comprehensive comparison of different policy scenarios, the model demonstrates explicitly how alternative environmental policies affect long-term emissions through a systematic intervention on a series of hinterland transport processes. The model also identifies the effective policies by which a lower emissions stock could be achieved. In addition, some suggestions for the policy making in hinterland transportation are provided. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.