标题：Climate shocks, dynastic cycles and nomadic conquests: evidence from historical China
作者机构：[Chen, Q]Shandong Univ, Sch Econ, Jinan 250100, Shandong, Peoples R China.
通讯作者地址：[Chen, Q]Shandong Univ, Sch Econ, 27 Shanda Nanlu, Jinan 250100, Shandong, Peoples R China.
来源：OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES
摘要：Nomadic conquests have helped shape world history, yet we know little about why they occurred. Using a unique climate and dynastic data set from historical China dating from 221 BCE, this study finds that the likelihood of nomadic conquest increases with less rainfall proxied by drought disasters, which drove pastoral nomads to attack agrarian Chinese for survival. Moreover, consistent with the dynastic cycle hypothesis, the likelihood of China being conquered increases with the number of years earlier that a Chinese dynasty had been established (and hence was weaker, on average) relative to a rival nomadic regime. These results survive a variety of robustness checks.