标题：To tell the truth or the perceived truth: Structural estimation of peer effects in China's macroeconomic forecast
作者：Hou, Linke; Lv, Yuxia; Geng, Hao; Li, Feiyue
作者机构：[Hou, Linke; Geng, Hao] Shandong Univ, Inst Contemporary Socialism, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China.; [Lv, Yuxia] Shandong Management Univ, Emergin 更多
通讯作者地址：[Geng, H]Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Econ, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.
关键词：Macroeconomic forecast; Static game; Peer effect; Structural estimation
摘要：This study investigates the strategic interactions among China's professional macroeconomic forecasters in the context of a static game with incomplete information. Professional forecasters attempt to be more precise than their peers when they are uncertain about others' ability to forecast, given their own ability to forecast macroeconomy. We then empirically estimate the peer effects using the two-step method proposed by Bajari et al. (2010). The results identify a pronounced peer effect among professional forecasters and specify the asymmetric peer effect exerted by prominent professional forecasters. The results remain valid through several robustness checks. The forecast customers must thus address the peer effects due to competition among professional forecasters when they use forecasting reports.