标题：Responses of future air quality to emission controls over North Carolina, Part II: Analyses of future-year predictions and their policy implications
作者：Yang Zhang;Xiao-Huan Liu;Kristen M. Olsen;Wen-Xing Wang;Bebhinn A. Do;George M. Bridgers
作者机构：[Zhang, Y] Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States;[ Liu, X.-H] Depar 更多
通讯作者地址：[Zhang, Y]N Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Box 8208, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA.
关键词：MM5/CMAQ;impact of emissions on future air quality;air quality standard attainment;sensitivity to horizontal grid resolution
摘要：The MM5/CMAQ system evaluated in Part I paper is applied to study the impact of emission control on future air quality over North Carolina (NC). Simulations are conducted at a 4-km horizontal grid resolution for four one-month periods, i.e., January, June, July, and August 2009 and 2018. Simulated PM_(2.5) in 2009 and 2018 show distribution patterns similar to those in 2002. PM_(2.5) concentrations over the whole domain in January and July reduced by 5.8% and 23.3% in 2009 and 12.0% and 35.6% in 2018, respectively, indicating that the planned emission control strategy has noticeable effects on PM_(2.5) reduction in this region, particularly in summer. More than 10% and 20% of 1-h and 8-h O_3 mixing ratios are reduced in July 2009 and 2018, respectively, demonstrating the effectiveness of emission control for O_3 reduction in summer. However, O_3 mixing ratios in January 2009 and 2018 increase by more than 5% because O_3 chemistry is VOC-limited in winter and the effect of NO_X reduction dominates over that of VOC reduction under such a condition. The projected emission control simulated at 4-km will reduce the number of sites in non-attainment for max 8-h O_3 from 49 to 23 in 2009 and to 1 in 2018 and for 24-h average PM_(2.5) from 1 to 0 in 2009 and 2018 based on the latest 2008 O_3 and 2006 PM_(2.5) standards. The variability in model predictions at different grid resolutions contributes to 1-3.8 ppb and 1-7.9 ng m~3 differences in the projected future-year design values for max 8-h O_3 and 24-h average PM_(2.5), respectively.