标题：Application of black box model for height prediction of the fractured zone in coal mining
作者：Zhang, Shichuan; Li, Yangyang; Xu, Cuicui
作者机构：[Zhang, Shichuan; Li, Yangyang; Xu, Cuicui] Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Min & Safety Engn, 579 Qianwanggang Rd, Qingdao 266590, Shandong, People 更多
通讯作者地址：[Zhang, SC; Li, YY]Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Min & Safety Engn, 579 Qianwanggang Rd, Qingdao 266590, Shandong, Peoples R China.
来源：GEOMECHANICS AND ENGINEERING
关键词：black box; overlying strata movement; fractured zone; regional system
摘要：The black box model is a relatively new option for nonlinear dynamic system identification. It can be used for prediction problems just based on analyzing the input and output data without considering the changes of the internal structure. In this paper, a black box model was presented to solve unconstrained overlying strata movement problems in coal mine production. Based on the black box theory, the overlying strata regional system was viewed as a "black box", and the black box model on overburden strata movement was established. Then, the rock mechanical properties and the mining thickness and mined-out section area were selected as the subject and object respectively, and the influences of coal mining on the overburden regional system were discussed. Finally, a corrected method for height prediction of the fractured zone was obtained. According to actual mine geological conditions, the measured geological data were introduced into the black box model of overlying strata movement for height calculation, and the fractured zone height was determined as 40.36 m, which was comparable to the actual height value (43.91 m) of the fractured zone detected by Double-block Leak Hunting in Drill. By comparing the calculation result and actual surface subsidence value, it can be concluded that the proposed model is adaptable for height prediction of the fractured zone.