标题：System Dynamics Research on Economic Transformation and Environmentally Coordinated Development in China's Eastern Coastal Region
作者：Li, Tangjun; Liu, Ni; Zhang, Qi
作者机构：[Li, Tangjun; Liu, Ni; Zhang, Qi] Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China.
通讯作者地址：[Liu, N]Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China.
来源：POLISH JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
关键词：regional economy; new industrial structure; pollution; coordinated; development
摘要：The developed eastern coastal cities of China are leaders of the national economy, which is growing rapidly. However, with this growth has come substantial misuse of resources causing significant environmental damage, including some 85% of global greenhouse gases resulting from the impact of economic development. To explore a reasonable approach to coordinated development of economic growth and the environment, this paper assesses the city of Qingdao, employing regression analysis and other methods to establish an economic-energy-carbon emissions-social system dynamics model with a new industrial structure based on the degree of pollution. On the basis of new industrial structures, three separate schemes are formed by different combinations of sensitive variables. The research shows that over-emphasis on the environment or production of control measures are not appropriate under the current economic modality. Overemphasis on the environment will lead to rapid decline in economic growth and even the loss of economic growth momentum. Over-emphasis on production will result in a sharp increase in carbon emissions, accelerating the destruction of the environment and causing irreparable losses. Only by taking moderate measures on the basis of the current economic conditions can we achieve the desired economic and ecological goals.