标题：Prediction of Electric Vehicle Ownership Based on Gompertz Model
作者：Li, Xiaolei; Wang, Enjie; Zhang, Chengjin
作者机构：[Li, Xiaolei; Wang, Enjie] Shandong Univ, Sch Control Sci & Engn, Jinan 250061, Peoples R China.; [Zhang, Chengjin] Sch Mech Elect & Informat Engn, 更多
会议名称：IEEE International Conference on Information and Automation (ICIA)
会议日期：JUL 28-30, 2014
来源：2014 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INFORMATION AND AUTOMATION (ICIA)
关键词：Gompertz model; electric vehicle; ownership prediction
摘要：This paper introduces the common prediction methods of vehicle ownership, and makes a compare of the Gompertz model with Logistic model. As a result, a prediction model based on the Gompertz model is proposed to predict the electric vehicle ownership of china. Then, the calculation of the model's parameters is given. Finally, we predict the electric vehicle ownership with the civilian car ownership data of China. According to the prediction results, China's electric vehicle ownership will reach the inflection point around 2035, and tend to be saturated gradually.