标题：A study of the dengue epidemic and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, by using a zero-inflated poisson regression model
作者机构：[Wang, C] Shandong University, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China, State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute 更多
通讯作者地址：[Liu, QY]Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China.
来源：Asia-Pacific journal of public health
关键词：climate change;communicable diseases;epidemiology;occupational and environmental health;public health
摘要：The aim of this study is to develop a model that correctly identifies and quantifies the relationship between dengue and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China. By cross-correlation analysis, meteorological variables and their lag effects were determined. According to the epidemic characteristics of dengue in Guangzhou, those statistically significant variables were modeled by a zero-inflated Poisson regression model. The number of dengue cases and minimum temperature at 1-month lag, along with average relative humidity at 0- to 1-month lag were all positively correlated with the prevalence of dengue fever, whereas wind velocity and temperature in the same month along with rainfall at 2 months\' lag showed negative association with dengue incidence. Minimum temperature at 1-month lag and wind velocity in the same month had a greater impact on the dengue epidemic than other variables in Guangzhou.