标题：Overtopping risk analysis using MC-LHS method
作者：Wang Wei; Li Chuanqi; Wang Shuai
作者机构：[Wang Wei] Tianjin Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China.; [Wang Wei; Li Chuanqi; Wang Shuai] Shandong Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Jinan 2 更多
会议名称：4th International Conference on Technology of Architecture and Structure (ICTAS 2011)
会议日期：SEP 22-24, 2011
来源：SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN ENVIRONMENT AND BUILDING MATERIAL, PTS 1-4
关键词：dam overtopping; Latin hypercube sampling; Monte Carlo simulation; risk; analysis
摘要：Based on the theory of risk analysis, this study develops a LHS - MC method to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. LHS method is used to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. One example of dam overtopping risk analysis is presented to demonstrate the validity and capability of the proposed method. By means of numerical example, it is shown that LHS method is efficient which tends to convergence within a few simulation times. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.