标题：Effectiveness of crop residuals in ethanol and pyrolysis-based electricity production: A stochastic analysis under uncertain climate impacts
作者：Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Ning; Choi, Yongrok; Xiong, Kai; Yu, Jiangli
作者机构：[Kung, Chih-Chun] Hubei Univ Econ, Inst Adv Studies Finance & Econ, Wuhan 430205, Hubei, Peoples R China.; [Kung, Chih-Chun] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Ag 更多
通讯作者：Zhang, Ning;Zhang, N
通讯作者地址：[Zhang, N]Shandong Univ, Inst Blue & Green Dev, Weihai 264209, Peoples R China.
关键词：Bioenergy; Climate change; Rice straw; Sweet potato vine; Stochastic; programming
摘要：Taiwan aims to replace all nuclear power with renewable energy by 2025, and thus how much electricity from such sources can actually sustain or improve its energy structure must be thoroughly evaluated. This study is designed to explore the Taiwan's bioenergy potential in the face of climate change and climate-induced crop yield change. Multiple bioenergy technologies and energy crops and residuals are embedded in a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model to discover their efficiency under changes in crop yields and market conditions. The results show that up to 2.26% of total electricity demand can be fulfilled with pyrolysis-based electricity and more than 3.1 million tons of emission reduction can be achieved. Climate-induced crop yield change, if it is small, shall not have considerable influences on bioenergy technology selection and bioenergy output, but land use may be altered considerably with an additional $NT 2.88 billion dollars in government expenditures on support programs.