标题：Influence of failure probability in operation period on rock salt underground storage cavern with mudstone interlayer
作者：Liu, J. ;Song, J. ;Zhang, Q. ;Zhang, W. ;Li, S.
作者机构：[Liu, J. ;Song, J. ;Zhang, Q. ;Zhang, W. ;Li, S. ] School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan, China
会议名称：Sino-German Conference, and the Sino-German Workshop Eor and New Drilling Technology""
会议日期：6 July 2010 through 10 July 2010
来源：Underground Storage of CO2 and Energy - Proceedings of the Sino-German Conference, and the Sino-German Workshop "Eor and New Drilling Technology
摘要：Rock salt storage cavern in China is characterized by mudstone or other interlayers which have negative effect on the storage cavern during construction and operation periods. Because of discreteness of rock material parameters, probability characteristics of related material parameters are analyzed and estimated by the BAYES method. Then an approximated limit state surface and explicit equation of random variables is built based on response surface theory to simulate the true implicit limit state surface. Combined with Monte Carlo method, computation efficiency is intensively improved. Taking Jintan underground rock salt gas cavern for an example, Mohr-Coulomb criterion is considered as failure criterion and the influence on failure probability for storage cavern is analyzed taking into account the location, thickness and numbers of interlayer. Computation results indicate that regardless of numbers of interlayer, the probability of failure for the whole carven is high when operation pressure is low. Thus special work must be done to control the lower limit of storage pressure during operation periods. On the other hand, higher probability of failure only occurs in the mudstone interlayer while failure probabilities of other positions of cavern are lower. With increase of the number of interlayer, the curve of failure probability has several peak values which all occur at the interlayer position. Influence of the thickness of interlayer exhibits mostly in magnitude and location of the highest probability. Especially for storage cavern with two mudstone interlayers, the highest probability of failure doubles as thickness of interlayer decreases. The analysis concludes that when a cavern is operated in high storage pressure, much attention must be paid on the location, thickness and numbers of interlayer.